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Prediction Market Infrastructure & AI Agents

In short

Prediction market infrastructure is the full technical stack that resolves settlement, oracle disputes, collateral management, and market-making logic, increasingly run by autonomous AI agents, built on top of contracts you already have live.

300,000+
users on CTF
99.99%
uptime maintained
$2B+
assets secured
1M+
Solhint users
Trusted by teams building on-chain

Building a prediction market is not hard to start; it is hard to sustain. The conditional-token settlement layer, oracle dispute handling, wallet security, and market-making logic that keep a platform liquid between elections and finals are where most teams get stuck. Prediction market infrastructure is the full technical stack that resolves those layers: the settlement contracts that mint and resolve outcome shares, the oracle that reports the result, the collateral and self-custodial wallet layer that holds user funds, and the trading and market-making logic that keeps prices liquid, increasingly run by autonomous AI agents instead of humans.

We build and integrate that stack on top of contracts you already have live. Protofire is a blockchain development company that has shipped 250+ projects since 2016 across 60+ networks and 95+ protocols, and our prediction market development comes from engineers who have already built pieces of this exact stack on Gnosis Chain: the Conditional Tokens Explorer that Omen-style markets settle against, and Safe, the smart-account wallet layer that makes an agent trading layer safe to deploy.

Most prediction market teams hit the same wall: volume spikes around elections and finals, then markets go stale for weeks. An AI-agent layer trades 24/7 to fill that trough, but building it in-house means Safe wallet security, state-constrained agent logic, oracle integration, and an onboarding UX most teams should not spend a quarter on. We deploy it for you, POC-first.

The prediction-market stack we build end to end

From conditional-token settlement through oracle resolution and liquidity layers to autonomous agent trading.

01

Conditional Tokens / CTF

Settlement contracts mint and resolve outcome shares; the foundation Omen-style markets run on.
02

Oracle Resolution

The oracle reports results and routes disputed outcomes through an arbitration path before settlement clears.
03

AMM / CLOB Matching

Automated market-making or order-book logic prices outcomes and keeps markets liquid between events.
04

Collateral and Wallet

Safe smart accounts hold user funds with hardcoded per-transaction spending limits enforced at the contract level.
05

Subgraph Indexing

A deployed subgraph indexes market state, positions, and resolution events for real-time frontend and agent queries.
06

Autonomous Agent Layer

AI agents read open markets, assess per-market probabilities, size positions via Kelly criterion, and trade 24/7 with no human oversight.
01

What we build

Prediction market infrastructure is everything a platform needs to let users bet on real-world outcomes on-chain: settlement contracts (typically a conditional-tokens, AMM, or CLOB design), the oracle that resolves the outcome, the collateral and self-custodial wallet layer, and the market-making logic that keeps prices liquid. The hard parts are rarely the happy path; they are settlement edge cases, oracle disputes, non-exploitable wallet permissions, and keeping long-tail markets liquid between the events that drive episodic human volume.

Oracle dispute resolution is the canonical edge case: when a reported result is challenged, settlement freezes and the question routes to an arbitration path, with outcome shares redeemed only once it is final; otherwise users get paid on a wrong outcome or funds lock up indefinitely. We have built pieces of this stack on Gnosis Chain since 2016, including the Gnosis Conditional Tokens Explorer, the interface that lets developers prepare, split, merge, report, and redeem the exact conditions (including Omen ones) that prediction markets settle against, now serving 300,000+ validated addresses at sub-second query speeds with 99.99% uptime. Benefits: a stack designed by engineers who have shipped settlement infrastructure · no rebuild of your existing contracts · the edge cases handled, not the happy path alone.

02

How an engagement works

1

POC Discovery

2-3 weeks, no cost to you. We run it ourselves: a contract-architecture and Safe-compatibility review, agent-stack partner selection (Olas, or a direct Apache-2.0 `trader` fork), PMXT coverage check, agent-wallet and spending-limit design, and a regulatory-exposure briefing. Deliverable: a go/no-go memo and a fixed-fee proposal.
2

Agent Layer POC

6-8 weeks, fixed-scope. Safe agent-wallet deployment, a forked-and-adapted agent logic engine, the platform contract adapter, AI-oracle configuration for per-market probabilities, an embedded agent onboarding UX, and an agent activity dashboard.
3

Security Gate

Non-negotiable: agent wallets hold user funds, so an AI Security Express scan runs before mainnet, on top of the contract-level Safe spending limits and Kelly-criterion position caps.
4

Full Engagement

10-14 weeks, scoped on the call. Plain-English strategy configuration, deeper AI-oracle integration, an optional autonomous market-creation agent, PMXT multi-platform routing, and a 30-60 day post-launch support retainer.
03

What platforms build with us

Add a 24/7 autonomous AI-agent trading layer to a live prediction market
Deploy Safe-based agent wallets with contract-level spending limits
Integrate an AI probability oracle for per-market assessments
Build an embedded agent onboarding UX (fund, configure in plain English, launch)
Ship a public agent activity dashboard (volume, accuracy, coverage)
Add prediction markets as a retention feature to a DeFi protocol
Add autonomous liquidity agents to a perpetual DEX for long-tail markets
Design a staking-reward program for agent operators
List on the PMXT unified prediction-market API ecosystem
04

Engineering-led prediction market infrastructure since 2016

Protofire is an engineering-led blockchain development company with 250+ projects shipped since 2016 across 60+ networks and 95+ protocols. We maintain Solhint (the open-source Solidity linter used by 1M+ developers and built with Ethereum Foundation grants), serve as an official Safe Guardian, and are a Gnosis Chain ecosystem partner.

In the prediction-market stack specifically, we built the Gnosis Conditional Tokens Explorer (the interface to the Conditional Tokens Framework that Omen-style markets settle on, now serving 300,000+ validated addresses with sub-second queries and 99.99% uptime), and we have deployed Safe, the self-custodial wallet layer this agent infrastructure depends on, across 120+ EVM networks securing $2B+. That Explorer lets developers prepare, split, merge, report, and redeem the exact conditions that Omen-style prediction markets settle against.

We scope the AI-agent trading layer POC-first, on real markets with real users, so the hypothesis is validated before you commit to a full build.

“Building a prediction market is not hard to start; it is hard to sustain when volume spikes then markets go stale.”

Prediction market infrastructure delivered
300,000+ validated addressesConditional Tokens Explorer

Built the CTF interface that Omen-style prediction markets settle against, serving 300,000+ validated addresses with sub-second query speeds and 99.99% uptime on Gnosis Chain.

GnosisView project →

AI agent layer infrastructure

Build in-houseProtofire
Safe wallet integrationYou design Safe limits and permissionsSafe deployed with contract-level spending limits built-in
Agent logic & oracle setupAdapting autonomy frameworks, state constraints, Kelly-criterion sizing from scratchFork, adapt, wire to your contracts; 6-8 weeks
Market coverageManual trading or thin bot coverage24/7 autonomous agents covering long-tail markets
Team overheadQuarter+ for your engineers on infrastructureYour core team stays on protocol economics
Security reviewIn-house, then external auditAI Security Express gate before mainnet

FAQ

What is prediction market infrastructure?
Prediction market infrastructure is the full technical stack behind an on-chain prediction market: the settlement contracts that mint and resolve outcome shares (typically a conditional-tokens, AMM, or CLOB design), the oracle that reports the result, the collateral and self-custodial wallet layer, and the trading and market-making logic that keeps prices liquid. The hard parts are rarely the happy path; they are settlement edge cases, oracle disputes, non-exploitable wallet permissions, and keeping long-tail markets liquid between the events that drive episodic human volume. At Protofire it's engineering-led: we've built pieces of this exact stack on Gnosis Chain since 2016 (the Conditional Tokens Explorer that Omen-style markets settle against, and Safe, the smart-account wallet layer), and we add an autonomous AI-agent trading layer on top of the contracts you already run, scoped POC-first so the hypothesis is validated before you commit to a full build.
Should we build the AI agent layer ourselves or fork Olas?
You can fork `valory-xyz/trader` (Apache 2.0) directly, and if your team already has deep Safe and integration expertise, that's the faster path. Olas and Valory are open-source stacks we build on, not Protofire products, so you're never locked to us for strategy improvements. What takes 3-6 months in-house is the integration layer between your contracts and the agent stack: Safe wallet deployment with contract-level spending limits, the platform contract adapter, AI-oracle configuration for per-market probabilities, the embedded onboarding UX, the activity dashboard, and monitoring. That's the 6-8 weeks we do. We fork and adapt the open-source autonomy stack, wire it to your existing conditional-tokens, AMM, or CLOB contracts, and hand it back. Because the agent software is maintained by a partner or your own fork, you keep full ownership of the strategy logic long-term.
What stops an AI agent from losing user funds?
Every agent runs inside a Safe smart account with hardcoded per-transaction and per-day spending limits enforced at the contract level, independent of what the LLM outputs, so a bad assessment cannot drain the fund. Safe is the wallet layer for a reason: Protofire is an official Safe Guardian and has deployed Safe across 120+ EVM networks securing $2B+ in assets. On top of those contract-level limits, the agent is state-constrained to the actions it's explicitly programmed for, position size scales with confidence via Kelly-criterion bet sizing that caps exposure per market, and an AI Security Express scan runs before mainnet. Because agent wallets hold user funds, that security review is non-negotiable: it sits in the engagement as a hard gate before any deployment, on top of the Safe spending limits and position caps already enforced in the contracts.
Are the agents actually profitable for users?
Honestly: across the live reference agents, trading P&L is roughly breakeven to slightly negative today. The economic incentive for operators is the staking-reward APR, not trading alpha, much like liquidity mining, where users earn a platform reward for providing activity and liquidity rather than guaranteed returns. The category is proven at scale, though not by us: Valory's Olas Predict agents have generated 13M+ transactions on Gnosis-based prediction markets and on peak days account for 75%+ of all Safe transactions on the chain, and the Polystrat agent traded 4,200+ times on Polymarket in its first month. Those are Valory and Olas builds and category benchmarks, not Protofire deliveries. What that proves is volume and uptime, not alpha, so we help you communicate the staking-reward incentive to users from day one rather than overpromising trading returns.
Who is this for?
This is for teams with a live, EVM prediction market platform that already has real users and fee revenue, not a pre-launch idea. The clearest fit is a mid-size platform whose volume spikes around elections and finals and then goes quiet, and that wants an agent layer as a differentiator the larger incumbents don't yet offer. It also fits DeFi protocols adding prediction markets as a retention feature (letting users speculate on TVL milestones, peg events, or governance outcomes) and perpetual DEXes that need autonomous two-sided liquidity on long-tail markets. The non-negotiables are practical: live mainnet contracts, an ERC-20 collateral token like USDC in active use, Safe deployable on the chain, and a team willing to be honest with users that staking rewards, not trading alpha, are the incentive. Non-EVM chains and platforms with no on-chain collateral token aren't a fit yet.
How long does it take and what does it cost?
POC Discovery runs 2-3 weeks, at no cost to you, and we run it ourselves: a contract-architecture and Safe-compatibility review, agent-stack partner selection, a PMXT coverage check, agent-wallet and spending-limit design, and a regulatory-exposure briefing, ending in a go/no-go memo and a fixed-fee proposal. The Agent Layer POC is a fixed-scope engagement over 6-8 weeks: Safe agent-wallet deployment, a forked-and-adapted agent logic engine, the platform contract adapter, AI-oracle configuration, an embedded onboarding UX, and an activity dashboard. A non-negotiable security gate, an AI Security Express scan, runs before mainnet because agent wallets hold user funds. A full engagement adds plain-English strategy configuration, deeper AI-oracle integration, an optional autonomous market-creation agent, PMXT multi-platform routing, and a 30-60 day post-launch support retainer, and runs 10-14 weeks. We confirm fixed scope before any build starts, so there are no open-ended commitments.
Do we have to rebuild our contracts?
No. We integrate the agent layer on top of your existing conditional-tokens, AMM, or CLOB contracts; we don't write a novel agent framework or ask you to redeploy contracts. Settlement stays on the contracts you already run; the agent layer sits on top of them through a platform contract adapter. For platforms already covered by the PMXT unified prediction-market API (such as Limitless or Opinion), that adapter is roughly 3-5 days of work; for others it's 1-2 weeks. The agent wallets are Safe smart accounts, and the agent logic is a fork of an open-source autonomy stack like Valory's Apache-2.0 `trader` or the Olas framework: proven, open-source code we adapt and wire to your contracts, not a hobby script and not a Protofire-owned framework you'd be locked into. Your existing settlement and collateral logic stays exactly as it is.

Reviewed by Luis Medeiros, Field CTO at Protofire. Last reviewed: June 2026.

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